Falling optimism in oil industry may cause mild AB recession

The Conference Board of Canada says pipeline constraints along with other factors could mean a mild recession for Alberta in 2019

"The lack of pipeline capacity will likely drive many investors south to the United States," according to the Conference Board of Canada. The think tank forecasts a mild recession for Alberta in 2019.

According to the newest provincial outlook from the Conference Board of Canada, Alberta could be facing a mild recession due to falling investment, pipeline concerns and Canada’s carbon tax.

In a press release from the national think-tank, the Conference Board of Canada said the “lack of pipeline capacity will likely drive many investors south to the United States.”

Overall, the CBoC calls for Canada’s real GDP to slip to 1.4 per cent this year, but expects it to rise to 2 per cent in 2020.

Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are facing other challenges as well due to China’s sudden refusal to accept shipments of Canadian canola and, more recently, other agricultural products including pork and other crops.

According to the CBoC, economic growth will weaken but is expected to be modest in Ontario and the three Prairie provinces in 2019.

“While the outlook is generally sound for most provinces, there are challenges and risks,” said Marie-Christine Bernard, Director of the CBoC’s Provincial Forecast.

She adds “A slump in oil sector investment and fiscal austerity in Ontario are expected to be part of the economic landscape for some time to come while elevated household debt levels and moderate household income growth are weighing on consumer spending across the country.”

In Ontario, fiscal austerity implemented by the Doug Ford government has dampened the outlook for Canada’s most populated province.

The CBoC predicts Quebec’s economic prospects to remain strong, however, with rising tensions between Canada and China, British Columbia may feel the impact of weakening trade.

New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island are experiencing strong net international migration and is expected to see stronger economic growth in 2019.





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