Non-oil sands production increases vary by western Canadian province – NEB

Heavy conventional is majority of Saskatchewan production and grows substantially over projection period

Oil prices have been significantly lower in the last couple of years compared to the early 2010s. This has led to a decline in total non-oil sands oil production, according to the National Energy Board.

With prices projected to gradually increase, both total heavy and total light oil production are projected to increase after 2020.

Likewise for conventional, tight, and shale oil production. However, not all provinces will see growth, and variations exist between those that do.

Northeastern British Columbia (B.C.) oil production is all light oil, with conventional oil making up the majority.

While B.C. has large shares of Canadian natural gas production and resources (see Canada’s Energy Future 2017 Supplement: Natural Gas Production), it does not have very much oil production.

The majority of non-oil sands production in Alberta has and will continue to be light oil. Most of the production growth over the projection period is from west-central parts of the province.

As horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing advanced over the last decade, tight oil production increased. It is projected to continue to make up a larger share.

In 2016, heavy oil made up 54% of all production in western Canada, and this number is projected to climb to 59% by 2021 with the ramp-up of Saskatchewan thermal heavy oil projects.

Heavy conventional oil makes up the majority of Saskatchewan production and grows substantially over the projection period.

This growth is because of advancements in employing steam assisted gravity drainage recovery to heavy oil fields. Tight oil production will also continue in the southwest and southeast parts of the province.

Manitoba production is entirely light oil. Production will continue to decline in the medium term then flatten out later in the projection period as prices rise and stay high enough for new production to keep pace with production declines from existing wells.

Oil Production by Western Province, Class, and Type (Mb/d)