Oil pipeline throughputs across Canada remained elevated in the last 18 months, due to higher crude production and expanded export capacity following the startup of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX), according to a new market snapshot from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER).
The CER examined throughput and capacity data for three major pipeline systems — Enbridge Mainline, Keystone and Trans Mountain — which together transport crude oil from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) to domestic and international markets. Combined monthly throughput across the systems exceeded 4.6 million barrels per day (MMb/d) at several points in 2024 and remained near that level through mid-2025.
Enbridge Mainline, Canada’s largest crude oil pipeline system, continued to operate at high utilisation levels throughout the period. Average throughput in 2024 was about 3.06 MMb/d, with volumes remaining strong into early 2025. Monthly throughput peaked above 3.2 MMb/d during winter months, when demand for condensate used in oil sands production increased.
The CER noted that throughput occasionally exceeded reported capacity due to operational factors such as changes in product mix and temporary efficiency gains.
Keystone pipeline throughput also remained high, averaging more than 600,000 barrels per day in 2024. An oil release in North Dakota in early 2025 temporarily reduced flows, but throughput recovered quickly. By June, volumes were again close to pre-incident levels, with utilisation typically ranging between 94 and 100 per cent.
The most significant structural change to Canada’s pipeline network came with the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project in May 2024. The expansion nearly tripled Trans Mountain’s capacity, from about 300,000 barrels per day to roughly 890,000 barrels per day.
Following the expansion, Trans Mountain throughput rose sharply. Monthly volumes ranged between about 670,000 and 740,000 barrels per day in late 2024 and averaged roughly 730,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2025. The CER said the expanded system has eased long-standing capacity constraints and increased flexibility in routing Canadian crude.
The TMX expansion meant increased access to tidewater and has enabled Canada to significantly increase crude oil exports to overseas markets, particularly in Asia. Statistics Canada data show that crude exports through British Columbia rose sharply after TMX entered service, with shipments reaching destinations including China, South Korea, Japan and Singapore.
While the United States remains Canada’s dominant export market, the ability to move oil westward has allowed producers to access higher-value international markets and reduce reliance on a single customer. CER analysis indicates that the expansion has also contributed to a decline in crude-by-rail shipments, as pipeline capacity became more available and cost-competitive.
Reuters has reported that Asian refiners have shown growing interest in Canadian heavy crude blends since TMX entered service, attracted by supply diversification and competitive pricing relative to other heavy grades. Analysts cited by Reuters say the expanded pipeline has improved Canada’s negotiating position by narrowing price discounts and giving producers optionality when U.S. markets are saturated.
Despite strong utilisation, commercial conditions around the expanded Trans Mountain system continue to evolve. Reuters has reported that the pipeline operator recently revised its longer-term throughput forecasts downward, citing slower uptake of spot capacity and ongoing negotiations with shippers over tolls.
Those reports underscore that pipeline utilisation depends not only on physical capacity, but also on toll structures, crude price differentials and shipping economics — particularly for long-haul exports to Asia, which face higher transportation costs than shipments to U.S. markets.
High pipeline utilisation reflects strong Canadian crude production. The CER previously reported that Canada set new production records in 2024, with output remaining elevated into 2025, driven largely by oil sands operations.
Reuters has also reported that major Canadian producers expect production to remain robust through the middle of the decade, supporting continued demand for pipeline capacity even amid oil price volatility.
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