U.S. crude oil production hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, rising 3 per cent as oil prices strengthened, signalling a more robust global outlook for the oil and gas industry.
New data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows output rose by about 3 per cent, or 350,000 b/d, compared to 2024. The increase came despite a 5 per cent drop in active rigs and fewer wells drilled, highlighting a structural shift in how U.S. producers are growing supply.
The gains reinforce the United States’ position as the world’s largest oil producer and contribute to expectations of a global supply surplus. Reuters has reported that rising U.S. output is a key factor behind forecasts of an oversupplied global market, with production expected to average roughly 13.6 million b/d in 2025.
Efficiency offsets lower prices
The 2025 production increase came as benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices fell to about $65 per barrel, down from $77 in 2024. Normally, lower prices would dampen output, but U.S. producers continued to extract more oil from fewer wells.
New wells added 2.9 million b/d of production in 2025, while existing wells accounted for 8.3 million b/d. Industry analysts have increasingly pointed to productivity gains — including longer laterals, improved fracking techniques, and better data analytics — as the main driver of growth.
Bloomberg has similarly reported that U.S. shale producers are pumping more oil per dollar invested, allowing output to rise even as capital spending and rig counts decline.
This decoupling of production from drilling activity marks a significant evolution in the shale sector, where companies have shifted focus from rapid expansion to capital discipline and efficiency.
Permian dominates growth
As in previous years, the Permian Basin remained the engine of U.S. production growth. Output in the region rose by 280,000 b/d in 2025 to reach 6.6 million b/d — nearly half of total U.S. supply.
Low breakeven costs continue to underpin Permian growth. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey, operators in the Midland and Delaware basins reported breakeven prices of roughly $61–$62 per barrel in 2025, below the annual average oil price. That cost advantage has allowed producers to sustain output even in a weaker price environment.
By contrast, other major shale regions showed limited growth. Production in the Eagle Ford rose modestly to 1.2 million b/d, while the Bakken saw a slight decline to a similar level.
Together, the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken account for nearly two-thirds of total U.S. crude production.
Offshore projects add supply
Production in the Gulf of America also contributed to overall growth, rising by 111,000 b/d to average 1.9 million b/d in 2025.
Five new offshore projects — Whale, Ballymore, Dover, Shenandoah, and Leon-Castile — came online during the year. Unlike shale operations, offshore developments are less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations due to their long lead times and high upfront capital costs.
This steady pipeline of offshore projects is helping to diversify U.S. supply growth beyond shale basins.
Global implications
The global outlook for oil markets has shifted rapidly in recent weeks. The war in Iran and severe disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — which typically carries about one-fifth of global oil — have tightened supply and driven prices sharply higher. With tanker traffic collapsing and infrastructure under attack, the market is moving away from fears of oversupply toward a more constrained and volatile environment.
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