China’s commercial expansion in Latin America carries ‘enormously strategic’ consequences for US

China’s expanding commercial presence in Latin America is creating strategic leverage that the United States is struggling to counter, says China-Latin America expert Evan Ellis.

Ellis, who served on the U.S. State Department policy planning staff during the first Trump administration, told Energi Media that Beijing’s influence is often misunderstood because it does not look like traditional military competition.

“Although it’s mostly commercial, it is enormously strategic in its implications,” Ellis said. Chinese firms have accumulated positions in telecommunications, transport, banking and electricity infrastructure, creating multiple forms of potential leverage over governments and economies.

China’s infrastructure strategy evolves

Ellis said the Belt and Road Initiative was always about more than building roads, railways and ports. Connectivity itself can create influence. He pointed to Chinese participation in telecommunications, cloud computing and electricity systems, including major ownership of power distribution assets in countries such as Peru and Chile.

Beijing is now layering new political and institutional initiatives on top of those commercial relationships, he said, including development, cultural, security and global-governance programs. Together, they deepen relationships with political leaders, academics, journalists and security institutions without requiring the traditional footprint of a military alliance.

Clean technology becomes strategic

Clean-energy industries are a major part of that expansion. Ellis said China identified technologies such as solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles as strategically important years ago, supported domestic companies until they could compete globally, then used scale, financing and low costs to expand abroad.

Latin America now provides a clear example. Chinese companies are active in wind, solar, hydroelectricity, long-distance transmission and electricity distribution. Chinese automakers, led by firms such as BYD, are also expanding market share and manufacturing in the region.

Ellis argues the same model could now emerge in AI-enabled robotics and automation. If Chinese companies build scale quickly in those industries, he said, they could capture another generation of strategic markets while U.S. companies remain concentrated on protected domestic markets.

Washington faces a difficult trade-off

The Trump administration has made resisting Chinese influence in strategic geography a priority, using commercial deals, development financing and, at times, coercive pressure. But Latin American governments are reluctant to give up Chinese trade and investment even when they want close security relations with Washington.

That leaves the United States competing with an economic presence that is already deeply embedded in regional infrastructure.

Ellis also warned that growing conflict between Washington and Ottawa weakens North America’s ability to respond to China. Canada and the United States have long relied on deep economic, border and defence integration, he said, and weakening that relationship undermines mutual confidence “at our own peril.”

For Ellis, Latin America is a bellwether for a wider transformation. As China gains confidence and scale in the technologies and infrastructure of the future, commercial success can increasingly translate into political and strategic power.