US Midterms May Offer Canada Limited Relief From Trump

Historian Jack Cunningham warns that presidential power, Middle East instability and costly energy workarounds will outlast the congressional vote.

Canada should not assume that a Democratic victory in the November 3 US midterm elections will substantially restrain Donald Trump or ease the pressure on its economy, University of Toronto historian Jack Cunningham says.

In an interview with Energi Media’s Markham Hislop, Cunningham argued that the president’s latitude in foreign affairs, combined with Trump’s willingness to challenge institutional limits, makes a congressional change an uncertain safeguard for Canadians.

Even court intervention may arrive too late to prevent lasting consequences, he said.

“By the time the courts weigh in, often the damage is done. The facts on the ground have changed.”

Congressional Checks Have Limits

Cunningham said the Middle East conflict is contributing to political pressure on Trump through high energy prices and the broader cost of living. But electoral punishment does not automatically translate into effective constraints on presidential action abroad.

He warned against assuming that Democratic control of both congressional chambers would produce a decisive foreign policy reset.

“So we cannot necessarily assume that a benign result of the midterms will make things drastically easier.”

Cunningham also raised the possibility of renewed military escalation after the election, while expressing doubt that a broader bombing campaign would deliver a better outcome without a much larger American commitment.

Iran and the Houthis Complicate an Exit

Iran’s ambitions now extend beyond surviving the war, Cunningham argued. He said Tehran hopes to reduce American power in the region permanently, a goal reflected in its hardening negotiating position.

At the same time, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and threats to regional energy infrastructure complicate efforts to develop alternatives to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Cunningham acknowledged that alternative routes are being developed. However, he cautioned that those routes can also be targeted and that moving energy through less efficient networks raises costs.

“The problem is a less efficient route is a more costly route.”

His assessment challenges expectations that bypassing Hormuz will quickly restore affordable energy. Infrastructure changes take time, while consumers and businesses must absorb the immediate consequences.

Cheap Weapons Challenge American Power

The conflict also illustrates a wider military shift, Cunningham said. Relatively inexpensive, mobile drones and missiles can be dispersed, manufactured in large numbers and used to damage much more costly systems.

He argued that the effect extends beyond states such as Iran to armed groups such as the Houthis, giving smaller actors greater capacity to disrupt international security and commerce.

Cunningham discussed a possible diplomatic role for Russia and China, but warned that a bargain involving concessions elsewhere, including Ukraine or Taiwan, would create serious risks for American allies. He presented that as a potential danger, rather than an agreed diplomatic arrangement.

For Canadians watching for relief from Washington, the implication is that election results must be assessed alongside presidential behaviour, the durability of institutional checks and developments in the Middle East conflict.

His overall outlook was for intermittent reductions in hostilities without a definitive settlement, prolonged regional instability and, at best, a gradual return to lower energy prices. For Canada, that means preparing for continuing uncertainty even after American voters have delivered their verdict.

End Notes

1. Source: Energi Media interview with Jack Cunningham, October 21, 2026. Transcript: Canada and the US Midterms — Jack Cunningham.
2. Related coverage: Jack Cunningham: Middle East Conflict Looking More and More Like a “Forever War”.
3. Related coverage: Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal Offers Little Relief Says Reuters’ Ron Bousso.