David Eby’s Colossal Miscalculation Hands Election to BC Conservatives

NDP supporters stayed home

British Columbia’s NDP lost power because David Eby failed to justify an early election and mobilize his supporters, political scientist Stewart Prest says. The Conservative victory also raises questions about resource development and Indigenous relations.

Speaking with Energi Media’s Markham Hislop, Prest said the preliminary results pointed to Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives winning 64 of the legislature’s 93 seats, compared with 27 for the NDP and two for the Greens.

Prest put Conservative support at about 48 per cent, with turnout below 50 per cent. He said the Conservatives received roughly as many votes as in 2024, while NDP support fell by approximately a quarter, representing around 250,000 votes in his interview estimate.

Those figures remain preliminary. Prest interpreted the gap primarily as an NDP mobilization failure, compounded by fatigue with a government first elected in 2017.

An Election Eby Struggled to Explain

Prest said Eby never provided a satisfactory explanation for sending voters back to the polls just two years after the previous election. A strongly negative campaign then compounded the problem.

“You have to give voters reasons to vote for the party,” he said.

The NDP spent too much time portraying Conservatives as threatening and too little explaining why voters should trust it with another term, Prest argued.

He said infrastructure investments offered a more constructive argument. Hospitals, schools and other projects take time to deliver benefits. Waiting longer would have allowed the government to demonstrate results and explain its spending.

The Opposition Changed but the Campaign Did Not

Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s departure and Doerkson’s selection as interim leader changed the campaign, Prest said. The prospect of an election helped bring divided Conservatives back together.

Doerkson appeared more relatable and less confrontational than his predecessor, weakening an NDP strategy focused on radical populism and Donald Trump.

Prest nevertheless cautioned that the Conservative coalition still contains a populist wing. A moderate leadership image does not resolve the policy choices facing the incoming government.

Resource Promises Face a Governing Test

On energy and investment, Prest said the NDP had already pursued LNG development and faster progress on mining projects. Conservatives must explain how their approach will produce additional results.

“It’s not immediately clear what else the Conservatives can do on that front,” he said of mining development.

He warned that reversing the province’s Indigenous rights framework without establishing what replaces it risks renewed conflict between the Crown and Indigenous peoples. Such disputes may delay resource projects rather than accelerate them.

Prest also expected the Conservatives to seek visible infrastructure wins, including hospitals and their proposed bridge replacement for the Massey Tunnel. He questioned how the party would balance economic development with environmental concerns.

The NDP, meanwhile, needs to reassess its coalition and respond to unmet needs among younger British Columbians while retaining voters who prefer incremental change, he said on Sunday.

For Prest, the result places responsibilities on both parties: Conservatives must turn campaign promises into workable government, while the NDP must rebuild public trust with a positive case for its return.

End Notes

1. Energi Media interview with Stewart Prest, October 25, 2026, 00:00–14:59. Election figures are Prest’s preliminary interview estimates.
2. Background: Stewart Prest’s analysis of the BC election in The Conversation.
3. Related Energi Media interview: BC Conservatives Split Over Economic Pragmatism, Social Radicalism.