Canadian cities moving to electric buses need to plan for winter, charging infrastructure and electricity-grid capacity at the same time, according to Jônatas Augusto Manzolli, lead author of a new Applied Energy study on electric bus operations in cold regions.
In an interview with Energi Media, Manzolli said the study examined Quebec City and found that winter can increase electric-bus energy demand by roughly 30 per cent. Heating requirements, pavement conditions, battery performance and operating conditions all contribute to higher energy use, forcing transit agencies to consider larger fleets and more charging infrastructure to maintain reliable service.
The central message, he said, is that agencies should not plan electric buses as a simple vehicle replacement program. Vehicles, chargers, operating schedules and grid capacity have to be planned together, especially in cold-climate cities where winter becomes a major operating condition rather than an occasional stress test.
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The study compared fast-charging and slow-charging strategies. Fast charging can reduce upfront procurement costs because buses can use smaller batteries and recharge more frequently during the day.
But Manzolli said the strategy can create very large power peaks. In the Quebec City modelling, fast charging required roughly 20 MW of peak power, comparable to the demand from a small neighbourhood. Depending on depot size and local electrical infrastructure, that level of demand could be difficult or impossible to accommodate without significant upgrades.
Slow charging requires larger batteries and more careful scheduling, but the study found it can reduce long-term operating costs by flattening peak power demand. Manzolli said power charges were a major driver of charging costs, making controlled charging and peak management central to the economics of fleet electrification.
The interview also covered battery improvements, megawatt charging, artificial intelligence, predictive maintenance and workforce skills. Manzolli said better batteries and smarter software will help, but transit agencies should not rely on technology alone. They need operating strategies that adapt as batteries, chargers, electricity prices and fleet data evolve.
One unresolved issue is what Manzolli called the “winter paradox.” Some electric buses still rely on fossil-fuel heaters in cold weather, reducing the emissions benefit of zero-emission vehicles during the hardest operating season. Heat pumps and other strategies could help, but he said more work is needed to remove fossil heating from winter bus operations.
The broader implication is that transit electrification is not only a transportation policy. It is also an electricity-system planning challenge. If governments fund buses without funding depot upgrades, grid connections, smart charging and workforce training, Canadian cities may discover that the difficult part of electrification begins after the buses arrive.
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