Global demand for coal has reached a plateau and may decline slightly by the end of the decade, according to a new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) featured in its World Energy Outlook 2025. The findings show that while global consumption remains high, structural forces such as renewable growth and fuel switching are beginning to temper coal’s growth trajectory.
In its most recent assessment, the IEA estimates that coal demand in 2025 will hit an all-time high of roughly 8.85 billion tonnes, a modest 0.5 per cent increase from 2024 levels. But looking ahead, worldwide coal consumption is projected to plateau through the remainder of the decade and edge modestly downward by 2030 as cleaner energy sources gain market share and emissions policies take hold.
“Looking ahead, we observe that global coal demand plateaus and will start a very slow and gradual decline through the end of the decade,” IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said in a press briefing accompanying the report. Coal remains the largest single fuel for electricity generation, making its evolution critical for climate and energy planning.
The analysis shows a nuanced global landscape. China — the world’s largest coal consumer, accounting for more than a third of global use — saw demand roughly flat in 2025 and is expected to see only a slight decline toward 2030 as renewable capacity expands. Smaller declines in advanced economies such as the European Union and the United States contribute to the broader stabilisation and eventual downturn trend.
In contrast, parts of South and Southeast Asia continue to register robust coal consumption tied to rising electricity demand and industrial growth. Regions including Indonesia and Viet Nam are forecast to experience growing coal use as energy demand surges and renewable deployment lags behind.
Meteorological factors played a notable role in mid-year demand patterns. In China and India, weaker electricity demand growth through early 2025 and stronger hydropower output temporarily reduced coal use, while in the United States and European Union, increased coal generation reflected a rebound tied to higher natural-gas prices and subdued wind and hydro output.
The IEA’s forecast deviates from earlier expectations of continued growth. A mid-year update indicated that global coal demand in some scenarios may decline slightly in 2026, bringing consumption close to 2024 levels before longer-term declines set in.
However, analysts and industry watchers caution that the picture is not uniform. A Bloomberg analysis underscored that whether global coal demand has truly peaked depends heavily on developments in China, where electricity growth and renewable integration rates will remain central to shaping future coal consumption trends.
The IEA’s findings come as coal faces intensifying competition from renewables, natural gas and nuclear power. Technologies such as solar and wind are expanding rapidly, pushing down the share of coal in electricity mix in many advanced economies. Renewables contributed a significant portion of energy supply growth in 2024, further eroding coal’s dominance.
The plateau in coal demand also has implications for global emissions targets. Coal combustion remains a major source of carbon dioxide emissions, and a sustained decline — even gradual — is seen as a critical element of long-range climate strategies outlined under the Paris Agreement.
Still, the IEA emphasises that variations in policy, economic growth rates and energy demand could alter the trajectory. If countries accelerate clean energy deployment beyond current policies, coal’s decline could be faster; conversely, slower renewable adoption might sustain higher coal use longer than forecast.
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