Description: This figure describes how the premises of our Evolving and Reference scenarios are represented explicitly in our modelling by crude oil and natural gas prices. The figure shows text boxes above two line charts that shows crude oil and natural gas prices over time for both scenarios, all in $2019 USD. In the Evolving Scenario, continually increasing global and Canadian action to reduce GHG emissions results in lower global crude oil and natural gas demand compared to the Reference Scenario. In the Reference Scenario, global and Canadian action to reduce GHG emissions generally stops at current levels, resulting in higher crude oil and natural gas demand compared to the Evolving Scenario. The first line chart shows that the Reference Scenario global crude oil price increases from about $40 per barrel in 2020 to $75 per barrel by 2030, and remains flat to 2050 while the Evolving Scenario price increase to about $55 per barrel by 2030, remains flat until about 2035, and then decreases to $50 per barrel by 2050. The second line chart shows that the Reference Scenario global natural gas price increases from about $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2020 to $4.2MMBtu per barrel by 2050, while the Evolving Scenario price increases to about $3.75 per MMBtu by 2050.
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