Source: Calculated based on BP, EIA, IEA, Shell data.
Description: This scatter plot shows various projections from BP, EIA, IEA, and Shell of growth in global crude oil and natural gas demand, indexed to 2010 levels (we divide each organization’s values with their estimates of 2010 demands, which allows us to better compare across scenarios). 2020 natural gas demand is about 120% of 2010 levels, while 2020 crude oil demand is about 115% of 2010 levels. For natural gas, BP’s Business-as-usual scenario and the EIA’s 2019 Reference scenario increase into the future at a rate similar to recent years, reaching about 160% of 2010 levels by 2040. Conversely, BP’s Rapid scenario increases to 2035, but then decreases to about 130% of 2010 levels by 2050. Natural gas demand in Shell’s Sky scenario and BP’s Net-Zero scenario decrease to 2050 from current levels to 2010 levels and 80% of 2010 levels, respectively. For crude oil, the EIA’s Reference scenario increases from current levels to about 140% of 2010 levels by 2050. Shell’s Sky scenario and BP’s Business-as-usual scenario slightly decrease from current global demand to around 2010 levels by 2050. Finally, BP’s Rapid and Net-Zero scenarios, and the IEA’s Sustainable Development scenario dramatically decrease to between 30% and 60% of 2010 levels by 2050. To see an animated version of this graph, click here.
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