Expanding power grid to electrify Alberta economy could be Smith’s greatest achievement
Ottawa released its zero-emissions vehicle sales mandate Tuesday morning. An hour later, right on cue, Danielle Smith lit her hair on fire. Too bad because she actually had a valid point that was buried in the bombast. Unfortunately for Alberta, addressing that point requires Smith’s government to act and the former talk show radio jock prefers talking to action.
The federal government will mandate that 20 per cent of all autos sold in Canada must be zero-emission vehicles (battery electric, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen fuel cells). That percentage rises every year, reaching 60 per cent by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2035. Quebec and British Columbia already have sales mandates and, not surprisingly, they lead the country in EV adoption at 20 per cent of new car sales.
Thirty thousand chargers will be built across the country with federal funds, according to the government’s statement, and new regulations will standardize charging infrastructure. Coming soon will be Measurement Canada regulations that require charging by the amount of electricity consumed, not time spent hooked up to the charger.
Smith’s objection, only mildly bombastic compared to other statements, is that Canada’s “electric grids are not equipped to handle the massive demand surge that a forced full-scale transition to EVs would need to accommodate the delusional timelines in Ottawa’s regulations, and the federal government has not provided remotely enough financial assistance to assist provincial grids to meet this mandated electricity demand.”
She’s partly right.
No jurisdiction on the planet has a sufficiently robust grid to electrify transportation, heating and cooling of buildings, and industrial processes. Nevertheless, electrification is at the heart of most nations’ climate plans. Economist Dr. Chris Bataille says economic modeling shows that developed economies like Canada will likely have to expand their electricity systems by two to three times by 2050. More generation, more transmission, and an upgraded residential distribution network to handle people plugging in their EVs overnight.
Re-engineering a power grid while ramping up demand is really hard, especially if intermittent renewables like wind and solar are a growing part of the generation mix. Smith frequently rails against the proposed federal Clean Energy Regulations, and does so again in Tuesday’s release, claiming that it will lead to massive grid instability, blackouts, and much higher costs to consumers. In early November, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) quietly released its submission to Environment and Climate Change Canada about the regulations.
“Without sufficient firm dispatchable natural gas generation, large areas of Alberta could be left without power for multiple hours during peak demand periods (extreme weather), creating serious public health and safety risks,” AESO warns.
AESO cites a recent report by the non-profit North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), which is responsible for monitoring power grid risk and stability in both Canada and the United States. The report says that the number one risk to North American grids is energy policy that causes the premature retirement of firm dispatchable power like coal, gas, and nuclear power plants. Listen to my Energi Talks interview (below) with Brian Slocum, NERC’s reliability issues steering committee chair, about the significance of the risk and what governments and regulators can do about it.
One of the risks is rapid load growth caused by adoption of electric transportation. Smith points out that unlike many other provinces, Alberta doesn’t have legacy hydro or nuclear assets to underpin grid expansion. It has gas, which she claims Ottawa wants to shut down.
The hole in the Premier’s argument is that her government has the jurisdiction to fix the problem. Given the bounty of oil and gas royalties expected to last at least until 2030, Alberta arguably also has the resources.
Smith just doesn’t want to.
As my good friend Max Fawcett, lead columnist for the National Observer, often points out, Smith likes to complain about issues that she has the power and jurisdiction to solve.
For example, AESO released a study last year showing that the province could not only achieve a net-zero grid by 2035, but the cost would be only $44 billion to $52 billion and the private sector would pick up 90 per cent of the tab. I interviewed Miranda Keating-Erickson, AESO’s VP of markets, who pointed out a few caveats. One hundred percent renewable energy is not possible, for example. Another is the limitations of carbon capture and storage, which at best captures 90 per cent of gas plant emissions.
A key point is that only 13 per cent of Alberta’s electricity is consumed by residential customers. The grid is built to serve large industrial customers like the oil sands in the north and petrochemical plants near Edmonton. Doubling or tripling consumer load might be easier in Alberta than in other provinces.
Keating-Erickson told me that while there have been plenty of net-zero policy discussions, especially with Ottawa, “but there hasn’t been a lot of study about how might we be able to do that, what might it take, where are the opportunities, where are the challenges, what are the risks?”
Here’s something Smith can do: commission the studies. Then come up with a strategy for growing the power grid while also cleaning it. Then pass the policies needed to achieve the strategy, provide direction to the regulator (the Alberta Utilities Commission), AESO, the utilities and power generators, and other stakeholders. Then provide financial resources, including negotiating more funding from Canada, to get the job done.
That would be leadership.
And given that power grids will be the backbone of economies as the world electrifies, there might be nothing more important she can do as premier to improve Alberta’s future economic prospects than to get this job done.
Preparing the grid for an electric future could be her singular accomplishment. Reading her comments about the EV sales mandate suggests that will never happen.
Smith is the talk show premier. She loves to rail against Ottawa, pick fights, and grandstand, but she doesn’t know how to roll up her sleeves and get a job done.
Alberta needs another Peter Lougheed. Instead, it’s stuck with a radio act whose only useful talent is applying a blowtorch to her tresses.
Be the first to comment