Alberta’s strategy to cut emissions from its electricity sector relies too heavily on unproven technologies while policies continue to slow renewable development, according to a new report from the Pembina Institute.
The report, Path of Most Resistance, argues the province’s proposed pathway to net-zero electricity emissions by 2050 depends largely on natural gas plants equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen fuel and future nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs).
Those technologies could eventually play a role in reducing emissions, the Calgary-based think tank says, but relying on them as the backbone of the power system represents a series of “risky bets.”
The analysis comes as Alberta negotiates with Ottawa over the future of electricity regulation under a Canada–Alberta memorandum of understanding signed last November.
Under the agreement, the federal government has indicated it could suspend its Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta if the province can demonstrate that its own policies would achieve equivalent emissions reductions.
Pembina says that outcome should depend on whether Alberta presents a credible and detailed alternative plan.
Heavy reliance on uncertain technologies
The report argues Alberta’s current strategy places a large share of its emissions reductions on technologies that remain expensive, uncertain or years away from widespread deployment.
Carbon capture has been demonstrated at only a handful of power plants globally. Small modular reactors are still under development, with most projects not expected to come online until the 2030s or later.
Hydrogen, which Alberta officials have promoted as a potential fuel for power generation, also faces significant economic and technical hurdles, including high production costs and transportation challenges.
According to Pembina researchers, relying on these technologies to decarbonize Alberta’s grid could delay emissions reductions and increase costs if they fail to scale as expected.
Renewable growth slowed by policy changes
At the same time, the report says provincial policy decisions over the past two years have slowed the development of wind and solar power.
In 2023 the Alberta government imposed a seven-month moratorium on approvals for new renewable energy projects while regulators reviewed land-use rules and grid impacts. The government later introduced new regulations governing renewable development.
Since the moratorium began, nearly 11 gigawatts of wind, solar and energy storage projects have left the Alberta Electric System Operator’s development queue, according to Pembina analysis.
That amount of capacity exceeds Alberta’s average electricity demand.
The province had been a national leader in renewable energy development earlier in the decade, attracting the majority of new wind and solar investment in Canada.
But analysts say regulatory uncertainty and shifting market rules have made developers more cautious about building projects in Alberta.
Government emphasizes reliability
The Alberta government has defended its approach, arguing intermittent power sources such as wind and solar must be balanced with reliable generation to maintain grid stability and keep electricity affordable.
Provincial officials have pointed to natural gas, nuclear and emerging technologies as key components of a reliable, low-emissions electricity system.
However, the Pembina report suggests Alberta could reduce emissions more quickly and at lower risk by accelerating renewable deployment while expanding grid connections with neighbouring provinces.
Greater electricity trade with hydro-rich provinces such as British Columbia and Manitoba could help balance renewable generation by using hydroelectric reservoirs as a form of large-scale energy storage.
Industrial self-generation — including rooftop solar, geothermal and on-site wind generation — could also help reduce demand on the grid while cutting emissions from heavy industry.
Negotiations with Ottawa could shape future
The negotiations between Alberta and the federal government could determine how the province’s electricity sector evolves over the coming decades.
If Alberta can demonstrate a credible pathway to reduce emissions while maintaining reliability and affordability, Ottawa may allow the province to regulate its electricity sector independently through an equivalency agreement.
But if the province’s strategy relies too heavily on technologies that take decades to scale, Pembina warns Alberta could risk missing emissions targets while other jurisdictions move ahead with cleaner power systems.
Be the first to comment