Trump has a strategy – punishment – and Canada should expect more of it, says Robert Pape

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Donald Trump’s escalating attacks on Canada can look erratic, but University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says there is a consistent strategy underneath them: punishment.

“Donald Trump has one basic strategic approach: punishment,” Pape told Energi Media. Trump threatens or imposes maximum pressure because he believes opponents will give him something tangible in return, Pape said. The approach appears in Trump’s domestic political fights as well as his dealings with friends, rivals and enemies abroad.

Canada is now experiencing the same theory of power through tariffs. Pape argues the confrontation makes little sense if analyzed mainly through conventional trade economics because Trump is pursuing a different political objective.

“He’s not doing international trade,” Pape said. “He’s doing MAGA domestic politics on the world stage.”

Pape traces the politics to blue-collar Americans who believe globalization moved good-paying manufacturing jobs out of the United States over the past three decades. That anger is directed at competitors and trading partners, including Canada, even when the two economies would benefit from continued integration.

The argument helps explain why advanced Canadian manufacturing is such an important target. Energi Media’s analysis of Canadian trade and industrial data found a noticeable overlap between the sectors hit by U.S. tariffs and industries such as autos, electrical equipment and electronics – precisely the kinds of manufacturing jobs Trump promises to return to the United States.

Pape said that from the MAGA voter’s perspective, Canada’s success in those industries can look like further evidence that American workers lost while their neighbours gained. The political demand is therefore not simply for better trade terms. “They want payback,” he said.

Pape also argues the punishment strategy contains a fundamental weakness. Coercion can occasionally work domestically when Trump can overwhelm a weaker opponent with legal or financial costs. Internationally, conceding to pressure today provides no protection against another demand tomorrow.

Pape’s lesson for Canadian policymakers is that the threat itself should not be mistaken for evidence that capitulation will end the confrontation. In international politics, he said, there is no higher authority that prevents a stronger country from returning with another demand after the weaker country concedes. His shorthand was simple: “once you give a dime, you’re in for a dollar.” Resistance can therefore be costly, but repeated concession may create even greater vulnerability.

That is why Pape says Canada should resist rather than reward coercion. He supports Prime Minister Mark Carney’s broader response: retaliate where necessary, protect targeted Canadian industries and diversify trade so the country becomes less dependent on the U.S. market.

Canadians should also expect the pressure to continue. Pape says Trump’s approach is rooted in MAGA politics rather than simply the president’s personality, meaning a future Republican leader could pursue a similar blue-collar economic strategy even if the tactics differ.

For Canada, that makes the current trade war more than a dispute with one president. It is evidence of a deeper change in American politics – and a warning that rebuilding Canadian economic independence may be a long-term project.