Jack Cunningham: Middle East Conflict Looking More and More Like a “Forever War”

October 13, 2026 | Canada, News, Video interviews

Continuing conflict in the Middle East could make Canadian oil and liquefied natural gas more attractive to overseas buyers, but only if new export projects can be completed quickly, geopolitical analyst Jack Cunningham says.

In an interview with Energi Media, Cunningham described a region facing prolonged instability as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian targets intensify and the United States remains embroiled in hostilities with Iran. He argued that the escalation is demonstrating limits to Washington’s ability to defend its partners.

“The more that the Houthis are able to strike Saudi targets with impunity,” Cunningham said, the more evident the limits of American military power become. He doubted that additional US participation in strikes against Houthi targets would decisively reduce the threat without a much larger commitment.

Cunningham also sees few near-term prospects for a settlement between Washington and Tehran. Their positions, he said, are too far apart for an easy or durable compromise. In his assessment, unstable supply routes and uncertainty over energy production could continue to affect global markets and household affordability.

The interview explored a separate controversy involving Russia. Cunningham criticized Trump’s discussion of Russian diesel supplies and a claimed energy ceasefire involving Russia and Ukraine. He contended that easing pressure on Russian refineries could help President Vladimir Putin more than it helps consumers, given the limited volumes of diesel he expects to reach the market. His characterization was a political assessment, not an independently established finding.

A potential opening for Canada

The disruption raises a strategic question for Canadian energy exporters: could Asian buyers increasingly prize dependable supply from North America over producers exposed to conflict?

Cunningham thinks so, at least over the medium term. He said proposed expansion of oil production, new pipeline capacity to the Pacific Coast and additional LNG exports could strengthen and diversify Canada’s economy if the projects move forward at the necessary pace.

“Given the likelihood of continued instability, it’s a reasonable bet,” he said, adding that speed of development is essential.

That condition matters. Large oil and gas projects take years to finance, permit and construct, while the market opportunity may change before they enter service. A return of flows from the Middle East or Russia could increase competition and put pressure on prices.

Cunningham nonetheless argued that buyers would remember how quickly ostensibly dependable supplies became vulnerable. Even if greater stability returns, he expects a lasting preference for countries offering both substantial resources and relative political security.

Energy transition adds uncertainty

There is another risk: continued shifts away from fossil fuels. Cunningham acknowledged that geopolitical disruption could accelerate the search for alternative forms of energy, even as he expects oil and gas demand to persist over a timescale measured in decades rather than years.

For Canadian policymakers and investors, that creates competing pressures. They may want to take advantage of supply-security concerns without committing billions to facilities that open after the strongest window for demand has passed.

Cunningham’s central message was that there is no clear path to a quick geopolitical resolution. For Canada, reliability could become a selling point—but timely construction and long-term market demand will determine whether the opportunity pays off.

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