Canada heat pump strategy needs stronger standards

Canada’s heat pump strategy needs stronger attention to installation quality, workforce training and measured performance if public spending is to build a lasting industry, energy expert Normand Mousseau says.

Speaking with Energi Media’s Markham Hislop, Mousseau supported wider adoption of heat pumps but questioned programs centred on subsidizing equipment purchases. He argued that governments should use their spending to improve service capacity and reduce costs beyond the life of individual rebate programs.

“We need to understand why is this gap so large,” he said of the difference between projected and observed savings in a Hydro-Québec evaluation.

Hydro-Québec finds a substantial savings gap

The utility’s April 2026 evaluation examined heat pumps installed through LogisVert in 2024. It estimated average annual electricity savings of 1,812 kilowatt-hours per installed unit, including heating and cooling. However, measured savings per unit of heating capacity were 55 per cent below the simulations used for the program.

Hydro-Québec identified problems with the original modelling assumptions and recommended more conservative savings estimates. It also recommended better customer education, more detailed program data and a control group for subsequent evaluation. The utility recommended continuing deployment because the equipment delivers real energy and peak-demand savings.

Mousseau argued that revising expectations should be accompanied by investigation into installation and operating practices. Understanding why some households perform better could help programs capture additional benefits, he said.

Equipment and household use affect results

The evaluation found higher annual savings for central systems than wall-mounted units. Central systems can distribute heat through existing ductwork, while wall units must be located to serve particular spaces and may operate alongside electric baseboards.

Mousseau said placement decisions driven by summer cooling needs may not produce the best winter heating results. Equipment sizing, controls and household operating habits also influence performance.

Hislop described problems with his own installation that were eventually traced to an older controller paired with a new heat pump. The experience illustrated the importance of technical expertise and effective service after installation.

Building expertise beyond the rebate cycle

Mousseau said intermittent government programs can make it harder for qualified installers to retain workers and develop experience. Strong demand created by subsidies can also attract operators without adequate training.

He called for program design that improves quality, controls costs and develops skills that remain useful when rebates end. Better follow-up and performance information would help governments understand what their investments deliver.

The broader economic opportunity includes integrating heat pumps with building controls, solar generation and batteries, as well as maintaining equipment and potentially developing Canadian assembly or component production.

Quebec’s findings concern homes already heated mainly with electricity. They should not be treated as a direct forecast of savings from replacing gas furnaces elsewhere. Climate, electricity and fuel prices, building characteristics and system design affect outcomes.

For Mousseau, the policy question extends beyond how many machines receive subsidies. Canada should use electrification spending to develop the people and businesses capable of deploying increasingly sophisticated energy systems. That would connect household comfort and efficiency with a longer-term effort to modernize the economy and strengthen competitiveness. He said those capabilities require deliberate policy and sustained investment.