Andrew Coyne: Trump has forced Canada to rethink its place in the world

Canada must fundamentally rethink its economic, defence and foreign-policy relationships as Donald Trump transforms the United States from the country’s most reliable partner into a potential source of coercion, says Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coyne.

In an interview with Energi Media, Coyne said Canada has historically organized much of its national strategy around the United States as its largest trading partner, closest ally and military protector. That model can no longer be taken for granted.

“Canada has to rethink everything,” Coyne said, describing a situation in which Ottawa must reassess trade, defence, industrial and foreign policy while looking for new partners and alliances. He said the goal is not isolation from the United States, but a more independent path built through different arrangements for trade, security and diplomacy.

Coyne said Trump has also weakened a central element of American power: credibility. Effective deterrence depends on allies and adversaries believing a country will do what it says. Under Trump, Coyne argued, American promises and threats have become difficult to take seriously, raising the question of whether future presidents will be able to rebuild that credibility.

The new security environment is also changing how Coyne thinks about Canadian infrastructure and energy policy. He remains wary of governments subsidizing uneconomic projects, including pipelines. But he said Canada is now operating in something resembling a “quasi wartime economy,” where reducing dependence on the United States can justify decisions that would previously have looked inefficient.

That includes potential energy infrastructure designed to reach markets without relying on U.S. territory. Coyne said the economic case still matters, but national security may require Canada to accept higher costs in selected cases.

He connected the same logic to productivity. Canada will need a richer, more productive economy to finance higher defence spending and major infrastructure. Coyne said that requires a more competitive investment environment and fewer policies that protect incumbent industries or subsidize chosen firms.

Carney’s ability to execute the strategy remains uncertain. Coyne said Canada faces longstanding problems with defence procurement, interprovincial trade barriers and federal-provincial coordination. He suggested the scale of the current challenge could ultimately require a stronger federal role, particularly in national infrastructure and the internal economic union.

Coyne also warned against assuming the Canada-U.S. relationship will automatically return to its previous form after Trump. A successor could continue similar policies, and even a temporary political reversal in Washington would not guarantee long-term stability.

Coyne said the pressure extends to Canada’s internal economic structure. Interprovincial trade barriers that were tolerated for decades now carry a strategic cost because they weaken the domestic market and suppress productivity. He argued that a stronger federal role may be required to remove those barriers and lead major infrastructure projects that cross provincial boundaries. Canada’s defence procurement system presents a similar problem: higher spending will accomplish little if governments cannot buy equipment quickly and effectively.

For Canada, he said, the immediate task is to create options and leverage while becoming a country capable of acting more independently in a much less predictable international order.