The confrontation between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz has become a contest over which side can sustain economic and political pressure the longest, according to University of Toronto international relations professor Aurel Braun.
Braun told Energi Media that Iran’s regime is suffering significant economic damage as restrictions on oil exports reduce the revenue available to support the military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and allied groups in the region. He described the conflict as a form of geo-economic warfare in which economic instruments are being used alongside military force to pursue geopolitical objectives.
Iran’s advantage is its ability to absorb domestic hardship while continuing to threaten shipping and regional targets with relatively inexpensive asymmetric weapons, including drones. Braun said Iran does not need to match American conventional military power to remain disruptive.
At the same time, he rejected the idea that Tehran’s survival to date demonstrates strategic strength. Iran’s air force and air defences have been badly weakened, he said, leaving the country vulnerable if the United States chooses to resume major offensive operations.
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The negotiations remain difficult to assess because U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly shifted between claims that an agreement is close and threats of further military action. Braun said Iran has also increased its demands, including compensation, access to funds, withdrawal of American forces and greater control over the strait.
Braun said the confrontation ultimately turns on political endurance. Iran’s authoritarian government can impose severe costs on its population, while the United States faces elections, pressure from allies and the reluctance of democratic societies to accept casualties and prolonged warfare.
He also pointed to the rapid spread of inexpensive drones and other military technologies as an important feature of the conflict. Such technologies can temporarily give weaker states new ways to impose costs on stronger opponents, although Braun said military history suggests countermeasures eventually emerge.
The larger issue, he argued, is whether democratic countries remain willing to sustain the costs of defending their interests and values when diplomacy fails.
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