China’s Electric Truck Boom Challenges Long-Haul Assumptions

Cheaper batteries, shorter freight routes and off-peak charging are widening the market, but trade-in subsidies create uncertainty

China’s electric truck boom is challenging assumptions about how much heavy freight can shift away from diesel, with falling battery prices, varied routes and cheaper charging opening a larger market than many observers anticipated, according to energy researcher Anders Hove.

Speaking with Energi Media journalist Markham Hislop, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Senior Research Fellow said analysts had underestimated the range of jobs performed by heavy trucks, particularly shorter trips moving bulk commodities.

“The main thing that’s changed, of course, is the battery price,” Hove said. Infrastructure and new truck models have developed alongside those reductions, expanding the applications that can electrify.

North American discussions often focus on trucks travelling long distances. In China, however, moving coal, cement, gravel and chemicals represents a significant market. Fleet operators serving mines and power plants can plan charging around relatively predictable routes.

That diversity means trucking does not need a single technological solution capable of handling every journey before electrification can advance. Smaller batteries can serve shorter routes, while improving technology and additional models expand the available options.

Cheaper charging shapes fleet decisions

Electric trucks still carry a substantial upfront purchase premium, Hove said. Battery size influences that gap, while cheaper off-peak electricity strengthens the operating case against diesel and liquefied natural gas.

Charging choices also reflect operating costs rather than simply a desire for maximum speed. On visits to Chinese charging sites, Hove saw trucks equipped for battery swapping whose operators chose to plug in instead.

At one large overnight parking site, trucks charged while drivers could stay in an onsite dormitory. Some vehicles there had swapping capability, but their operators were taking advantage of inexpensive electricity.

Megawatt charging exists in China, Hove said, but it is not the main form of truck charging. Operators able to fit charging into their schedules may prefer lower prices to the fastest available equipment.

Trade-in subsidies create uncertainty

Government support remains an important qualification. Hove described a trade-in subsidy of RMB150,000 for eligible vehicle replacement, with the old vehicle deregistered and destroyed. He said it covers a large portion of the electric truck premium.

Uncertainty about the subsidy’s future can encourage buyers to bring purchases forward. Hove warned that ending generous support could produce a sharp sales decline, rather than a gradual adjustment. He questioned whether the subsidy would continue beyond this year.

Looking ahead, Hove expects intense competition, manufacturing expansion and continued learning to support further battery price declines. More vehicle models and improvements in battery performance, including in cold weather, could expand the market further.

Lessons for Canada and overseas markets

Asked about Canada, Hove did not confirm Chinese manufacturers’ entry plans. He pointed instead to overseas dealership activity and markets where low operating costs are attracting interest, even when environmental concerns are not the main motivation.

He cautioned against explaining fleet decisions through diesel prices alone. Companies investing in charging networks have an incentive to use them more fully, while larger electric fleets can create efficiencies in maintenance and insurance. The transition also depends on expectations about technology, fleet organization and future electricity costs, he said.