Alaska’s crude oil output is expected to increase by 13 per cent in 2026, reaching its highest annual production level since 2018, according to new projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The forecast, published in the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, estimates production will climb to about 477,000 barrels per day (b/d) next year. The increase is driven primarily by two new North Slope oil developments that will add significant new supply.
The Nuna project, operated by ConocoPhillips, began production in December 2024. Output reached approximately 7,000 b/d in August 2025, with peak production expected at about 20,000 b/d as additional wells come online. The EIA report also highlights the upcoming Pikka Phase 1 development, operated by Santos and Repsol, which is scheduled to begin production in the first quarter of 2026. Pikka Phase 1 is forecast to reach peak output of roughly 80,000 b/d by mid-2026, accounting for nearly one-fifth of Alaska’s expected total production next year.
The EIA notes that recent well performance results from both projects show substantially higher productivity compared with the state’s existing producing wells. The agency reports that the newer wells tested at around 480 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), whereas 78 per cent of currently producing Alaskan wells produced less than 400 BOE/d in 2023. The strong early results have led the EIA to assume continued above-average well productivity in its 2026 forecast.
Alaska’s annual crude-oil production has been in long-term decline since the late 1980s, when output peaked at more than two million barrels per day. Production has since fallen to between 440,000 and 480,000 b/d over the past decade, with year-to-year variations largely dependent on maintenance schedules, new project timing and weather-related operational challenges. The Nuna and Pikka developments are among the largest new oil projects to begin producing on the North Slope in more than a decade.
The EIA cautions that the 2026 projection is subject to uncertainty related to project timelines, well-performance outcomes and operational conditions. Delays in drilling or completion activity, supply-chain constraints or weather-related disruptions could reduce actual output below the forecast. The agency also notes that the production outlook assumes no major unplanned outages or extended maintenance cycles.
Both projects will increase oil volumes transported along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS), which has seen declining throughput as the state’s production has fallen. Higher volumes will improve pipeline operating efficiency, which can be affected when throughput declines because the pipeline was designed for much higher flow rates.
If the forecast increase materialises, 2026 would mark one of the largest single-year production gains in Alaska in recent decades. The EIA attributes nearly all of the projected growth to the ramp-up of the two new North Slope developments, with legacy fields expected to continue their gradual decline.
The agency will update its estimates in future monthly reports as new drilling, operational and production data become available.
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