Marketable natural gas production from Alberta and British Columbia (B.C.) made up 94 per cent or more of Canada’s total gas production from 2010 to 2018.
This proportion is projected to grow from 2019 to 2040. Alberta’s natural gas production is projected to remain relatively flat through to 2040. B.C.’s production is expected to continue growing, and is expected to be almost as much as Alberta’s in 2040.
Liquefied natural gas exports from Canada’s west coast are assumed to begin in 2025, which triggers additional drilling and production to supply it.
B.C.’s share of production increases throughout the projection because of growing tight gas production from the Montney Formation. Alberta also has strong Montney production, which helps offset production declines from conventional gas.
Drillers are expected to continue to focus on deeper, liquids-rich tight gas, because liquids (NGLs) generate additional revenue. Solution gas has a significant share of Alberta’s gas production given Alberta’s projected oil production.