Bioenergy use could double in Canada’s net-zero future

This article was published by the Canada Energy Regulator on Feb. 21, 2024.

Bioenergy is an important component of Canada’s energy mix, accounting for around 7 per cent of Canada’s end-use energy demand in 2020 (or 733 petajoules (PJ), this includes end uses of biofuels, bioelectricity, and biohydrogen.^Footnote 1 Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2023) looks at how Canada’s energy system might change from 2023 to 2050 in three different scenarios: Current Measures (CM)^Footnote 2, Global Net-zero (GNZ)^Footnote 3, and Canada Net-zero (CNZ).^Footnote 4 Bioenergy use increases the most in the CNZ scenario, rising to 1,645 PJ by 2050, making up 16 per cent of Canada’s total end-use energy demand. In the GNZ scenario, the bioenergy use increases to 1,497 PJ by 2050, with a percentage bioenergy contribution even higher than CNZ, at 17 per cent in 2050. The percentage contribution is higher in GNZ scenario since the total end-use energy is lower in GNZ compared to CNZ. (Figure 1)

Figure 1: Bioenergy contribution to end-use demand in net-zero scenarios

Bioenergy types in EF2023

EF2023 considers eight end-use bioenergy types, of which six are biofuels as listed below:

• Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)
• Biodiesel^Definition*
• Renewable diesel^Definition*
• Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)^Definition*
• Ethanol^Definition*
• Biomass (heating and other uses)^Footnote 5

The other two bioenergy types include, electricity produced from biomass (bioelectricity), and hydrogen produced from biomass (biohydrogen).

Resource availability for bioenergy

Feedstocks^Footnote 6 for bioenergy are diverse, with four residual feedstock types:

• crop residue^Footnote 7
• forest residue^Footnote 8
• livestock residue^Footnote 9
• urban wastes^Footnote 10

And two purpose grown or managed feedstock types:

• energy crops^Footnote 11
• forestry^Footnote 12

Because both feedstocks and bioenergy (especially biofuels) are diverse, determining bioenergy supply is complex. CER’s Bioenergy Supply Model (CER-BSM) assesses detailed biomass resource inventories to connect different bioenergy feedstocks with bioenergy types in each EF2023 scenario.

Canada Energy Regulator – Bioenergy Supply Model (CER-BSM)

CER-BSM is a model that considers over 30 different biomass feedstocks and optimizes feedstock use for different bioenergy types in each province. The feedstock used for each bioenergy type depends on several things, such as feedstock suitability and availability, demand and price of the biofuels, preprocessing requirements, required land use, and production technology. CER-BSM follows the regulatory and policy framework highlighted in EF2023 for each of the scenarios. CER-BSM does not consider social or consumer behaviours, and only provides a technically and economically feasible solution. Future developments in CER-BSM may include some, or all the above, and may yield different results from what is published here.

Footnotes

1. End use bioenergy, by type, for the context of this Market Snapshot includes biofuels (liquid, gaseous, solid), bioelectricity, and biohydrogen, whereas CER’s other publications may only include biofuels.
2. Current Measures (CM) Scenario assumes limited action in Canada to reduce GHG emissions beyond measures in place today and does not require that Canada achieve net-zero emissions. In this scenario, we also assume limited future global climate action.
3. Global Net-zero (GNZ) Scenario assumes Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. We also assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit warming to 1.5°C.
4. Canada Net-zero (CNZ) Scenario assumes Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050, but the rest of the world moves more slowly to reduce GHG emissions.
5. Biomass mainly includes solid biomass used for heating. In general, solid biomass includes firewood, woodchips, and wood pellets. Some industrial biomass uses are also included.
6. Market Snapshot: Canada’s Bioenergy Diversity and Potential, CER
7. Crop residue is plant remains (such as straw and chaff) after crops are harvested and processed.
8. Forest residue is harvesting and forest product manufacturing residues, residues from forest fire mitigation activities, and unmerchantable wood from natural disturbances (i.e., forest fire & pest infestation). This includes treetops, branches, sawdust, wood chips and bark.
9. Livestock residue is residue from livestock farming and processing, including animal manure, animal oils, and animal fats.
10. Urban waste is waste from residents, industries (like pulp and paper), institutions, commercial activities, and waste from landfills and sewage.
11. Energy crops are crops grown for energy, including corn, wheat, willow, canola, switchgrass, miscanthus, hybrid poplar, and more.
12. Forestry, mainly wood produced as firewood and fuelwood, and includes wood produced as a result of sustainable forestry practices, such as wildfire mitigation and pest control.
13. The percentage residual feedstock usage estimate excludes animal oils and fats used for biofuel production. The amount of animal oils and fats used by year 2050 under both GNZ and CNZ scenarios are estimated to be around 10 per cent of the available amount.
14. Agricultural lands are defined as any land that can be adopted/used for crop growth and include lands without natural limitations for crop growth, lands with moderate to very severe natural limitations for crop growth, lands that can produce only perennial forage crops, and organic soils (Includes Canada Land Inventory Classes 1-6 and O).
15. The current direct wood supply for energy industry only includes wood purposefully harvested as firewood or fuelwood as reported by Canada Forestry Services.
16. Canada: Biofuels Annual, USDA, 2023