Canada Energy Regulator’s Canada’s Energy Future 2019 projects that Canadian natural gas liquid (NGL) production will continue to increase to 2040. This is because natural gas production is expected to grow from rising projected natural gas prices and to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Canadian natural gas liquid production grows more than 80 per cent over the projection period. Growth is dominated by condensate, whose production more than doubles by 2040 to help supply diluent demand in the oil sands. Propane and butane production also increase over the projection period.
Demand for propane and butane increases in the mid-term as petrochemical use in Alberta and propane and butane exports rise.
Ethane production increases slowly over the projection to 2040, because, even though more ethane is available in production, only so much is removed to supply Alberta’s petrochemical facilities. Ethane surplus to Alberta’s demand is reinjected back into the pipeline system to be consumed by natural gas end users, such as in gas-fired power plants and furnaces.