‘Crude catastrophe’ of sea level rise threatens global oil trade

This article was published by The Energy Mix on May 27, 2024.

By Christopher Bonasia

Critical maritime infrastructure, trade routes, and the energy security of major economies are imperilled by rising seas, finds a new report that names Japan and South Korea as especially vulnerable.

“With sizable energy security exposure, it’s time to rethink oil—far from providing energy security, our oil habit could sink all our futures,” China Water Risk (CWR) writes in a new report that stress-tests the world’s top 15 oil ports against various sea levels.

“Once triggered, we cannot ‘undo’ rising seas, so we must start talking about the implications of this ‘crude catastrophe’ now.”

More than 60% of the world’s crude is moved by oil tankers that must rely on loading and unloading infrastructure at ports, CWR writes. But access to the ports will be disrupted as global heating melts water locked in the world’s glaciers and ice sheets.

“Port insecurity is energy insecurity,” writes CWR. “We are especially worried as polar ice has been melting much faster and much sooner than expected.”

The top five importers of crude oil account for 60% of global crude oil imports. Among them, China, India, South Korea, and Japan are in Asia, making the region especially vulnerable to sea level rise. For South Korea and Japan, oil is also the largest energy source and top import by trade value. Even just one metre of sea level rise will affect five of Asia’s top ports—plus another seven major ports worldwide. And one metre of sea level rise is a nearly certain outcome of global warming, even under best case scenarios, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

CWR research shows that another two ports will be disrupted if sea levels rise by two metres, a likely scenario by 2100 if global warming is allowed to increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

“Many ice sheet scientists never thought they would see this level of melt in their lifetimes and now warn that ice is already in the danger zone at 1.5°C, and 2°C is too hot for ice,” CWR writes. “The only option is to stay under 1.5°C or risk unleashing two to three metres of sea level rise.”.

Yet “alarmingly, current annual carbon dioxide emissions growth tracks the very worst-case scenario,” the report adds. “Clearly this will be disastrous—swathes of coastlines will be redrawn, coastal cities and rural populations uprooted.”

The pronounced risk facing Asian countries from sea level rise should propel those countries to take ambitious action to shift off fossil fuels, CWR says.

“The infrastructure risks highlighted in our report offer unique investment opportunities,” said report author and CWR director Debra Tan. “We must capitalize on them and wean ourselves off oil: far from providing energy security, our oil habit could sink all our futures.”