This article was published by the Canada Energy Regulator on Nov. 13, 2024.
Over the last decade, oil sands production continues to increase, with new production records regularly being set. As of May 2024, bitumen production averaged 3,460 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2024 compared to 3,110 Mb/d in 2019, and 2,530 Mb/d in 2015(1). This growth occurred despite only a few new projects being built since 2015 (Figure 1). The last mine that was completed was Suncor’s Fort Hills mine in 2018, and the last in-situ project completed was Harvest Operations Corp.’s BlackGold project in 2018. There are currently no new mines under construction and one new in-situ project, Blackrod, which will be operated by International Petroleum Corp. and is scheduled to be completed in 2026(2).
Description: This stacked bar chart shows oil sands bitumen production from mines and in situ projects from 2015 to 2024. Oil sands production increased from 2,500 Mb/d in 2015 to just under 3,500 Mb/d 2024. Production increased from both mines and in situ projects Lower production growth in 2016 and 2020 was due to wildfires in Fort McMurray and the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. To see an animated version of this graph, click here.
Oil sands projects typically do not reach full production capacity in their first year of operation—some can take up to a few years. However, the ramp up of new stand-alone projects has only accounted for a small portion of production growth since 2018. Most production increases have come from existing projects either through continued ramp up, expansions, or operational improvements.
Unlike conventional oil production, oil sands projects have commercial lifespans that can last several decades, with low production decline rates. This longevity provides companies the opportunity to apply different methods to optimize their facilities(3)(4) over the course of a project’s life to maintain or increase production. In some cases, companies will incorporate new technologies that may not have been available when the project started. For example, injecting non-condensable gasses into in-situ reservoirs frees up steam to be deployed elsewhere in the field which can lower a project’s emissions intensity(5) and increase a project’s total production.
Nearly all oil sands mines operating prior to 2015 have increased production since that time. Of these projects, Imperial Oil’s Kearl mine saw the largest increase, adding 114 Mb/d to reach 281 Mb/d in 2024. Likewise, of the 10 largest in-situ projects that existed prior to 2015, eight increased production by 2024. A full summary of the changes in production from all oil sands mines and the 10 largest in-situ projects from 2015 to 2024 can be found in Figure 2.
Description: This horizontal bar chart shows bitumen production from the six oil sands mines and the ten largest in situ facilities in 2015, 2019, and 2024. The Fort Hills Mine has only been operating since 2018. Most facilities have increased production since 2015. Oil sands mines tend to be bigger than in situ projects and produce more bitumen. To see an animated version of this graph, click here.
Footnotes
- ST3: Alberta Energy resources Industries Monthly Statistics
- Alberta Major Projects, Government of Alberta
- Firebag does it again! Small tweaks with big results–| Suncor
- Jackpine Mine Expansion Project, Government of Canada
- Non-condensable gas Co-Injection with steam for oil sands recovery – ScienceDirect
- Statistical Reports, AER
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