More gas turbines for data centres may signal lost opportunity for solar

A planned expansion by one gas turbine manufacturer could eventually help data centres acquire more gas-generated electricity to power their operations, leading to possible disappointment for the solar industry.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industry announced recently that it would double its turbine manufacturing capacity over the next two years, reports Heatmap. Mitsubishi is one of three manufacturers of gas turbines globally, along with GE Vernova and Siemens Energy. Though gas turbines have been in high demand as data centres lay plans to install their own gas power plants, the high capital investment needed for turbine manufacturing has held the companies back from expanding to meet a demand that might disappear if the AI boom fails to meet expectations.

Mitsubishi CEO Eisaku Ito told Bloomberg in late August that orders are increasing as aging turbines are set to be retired. The company aims to expand output by improving its production chain efficiency, though Bloomberg says turbine manufacturing costs have nearly doubled in recent years due to higher costs for materials, supplies, and staffing.

Earlier this year, The Energy Mix reported that the limited supply of gas turbines was causing supply chain bottlenecks that put a wrench in the plans of Canadian utilities and data centres. While gas turbine orders are already likely to reach a new record this year, S&P Global Commodities says past boom and bust cycles have made the three companies cautious about making investments that won’t pay off.

While the companies’ trepidation over the future of AI has been a roadblock for data centre developers, renewable energy proponents have seen it as a positive signal for future solar energy expansion. Tight turbine supply could push developers to go with more readily available solar technology that is faster to install, especially as solar prices continue to fall relative to gas.

But Heatmap presents Mitsubishi’s announcement as a potential disruption to that line of thinking, citing an increase in the company’s stock price following the news as an “ominous development for the renewable energy industry.”

The two other turbine makers don’t appear ready to make a similar jump yet, with GE Vernova describing its “pipeline of activity for gas demand” as “growing at even more healthy levels for 2029 deliveries, 2030, 2031.”

Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch said his company had “no intention” of increasing capacity beyond expanding existing facilities. He said Siemens, which had to navigate serious challenges with its gas turbine division nearly a decade ago, faced constrained supply chains for turbine blades and vanes, reports Heatmap.

Analysts suggest that while Mitsubishi’s expansion plans could ease demand in the long run, ambitions are modest and wait times for the turbines will remain long.

“The executives seem keen to stress that this expansion will be lean and efficient,” Advait Arun, a climate and infrastructure analyst at the New York-based Center for Public Enterprise, told Heatmap. “There’s a tension between getting over their skis by expanding overmuch, while also killing the goose that’s laying their golden egg by not expanding.”