New report analyzes the effectiveness of clean fuels in lowering emissions

TORONTO, ON — The Pembina Institute has released a new report, “Fuelling the Transition: Low-carbon fuel choices for road freight,” analyzing the role of clean fuels in the decarbonization of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), a sub-sector of the transportation industry responsible for the highest levels of carbon pollution in Canada after oil and gas production.

The transportation sector accounts for nearly a quarter of Canada’s total greenhouse gases, and MHDVs produce 37 per cent of those emissions.

The combination of pending regulations, total cost of operations, and environmental targets has initiated a shift among fleet owners to low- and zero-emission vehicles, and many are starting to make sizeable investments to reduce the carbon footprint of their road freight inventory.

Hongyu Xiao, Senior Analyst, Pembina Institute said “In many cases, market-ready electric models are a viable choice and are most closely aligned with climate policies and regulations aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.” 

To reduce uncertainties and assist owners and operators in making sound investment decisions, the Pembina Institute considered four low-carbon fuels: biodiesel, renewable diesel, renewable natural gas, and hydrogen.

Our assessment shows that:

• The fastest and most cost-effective means of reducing emissions generated by the MHDV sector is through electrification, which can currently be applied to most vehicle classes.
• Clean fuels will play an important role across the MHDV sector during the transition to zero-emission trucks and buses. During this time, a significant number of long-haul and delivery vehicles will continue to be internal combustion, and low-carbon fuels can reduce emissions while enabling operators to continue driving vehicles to end of life. 
• Long term, clean fuels enable at least partial decarbonization in classes of trucks where electrification is not commercially viable (such as long-haul Class 8 rigs).

Any decarbonization pathway that incorporates clean fuels must factor in the duration of their use. In many instances, low-carbon fuel is best thought of as a temporary measure until an internal combustion vehicle is replaced with an electric one. Within a discrete segment of vehicle categories, however, clean fuels, namely hydrogen, may well be useful over the long term.

Adam Thorn, Transportation Director, Pembina Institute said there are “some vehicles classes such as long-haul trucks that are just not amenable to electrification for technical and design reasons. In those cases, alternative fuels, most likely hydrogen, can be a long-term solution.”

The federal government announced that 35 per cent of all new truck and bus sales by automakers and importers should be emission-free models by 2030, climbing to 100 per cent of sales by 2040 where feasible. Our modelling indicates that even with a sales mandate in place, nearly 70 per cent of medium-duty vehicles and 95 per cent of heavy-duty vehicles will still run on internal combustion engines in 2030.