US EIA predicts US crude imports to fall by half by 2019

US crude imports
The United States Energy Information Administration released its Short Term Energy Outlook last week.  One of the forecasts issued by the agency is a drop in US crude imports from 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 1.6 million b/d by 2019. Apache photo.

The United States Energy Information Administration released its Short Term Energy Outlook last week.  One of the forecasts issued by the agency is a drop in US crude imports from 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 1.6 million b/d by 2019.  Apache photo.

US crude imports forecast to fall to 1.6 million b/d by 2019

In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the United States Energy Information Administration forecasts that US crude imports, including petroleum products, will fall to 1.6 million barrels per day (b/d), a level not seen since 1958.

In 2017, the US imported an average of 3.7 million b/d and in 2018, the agency reports the United States is importing an average of 2.4 million b/d.

Rising US oil output is behind the decline in US crude imports.

Last month, the EIA estimates that US crude production averaged 10.9 million b/d, up 0.1 million b/d over May.  The agency predicts US crude production to average 10.8 million b/d this year, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017.  In 2019, US oil output is pegged to be 11.8 million b/d.

US dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017. The EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.3 Bcf/d in 2018, which would set a new record. The agency expects natural gas production will rise by an additional 3.1 Bcf/d in 2019 to 84.5 Bcf/d.

The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.97/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in June. The EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/MMBtu in 2018 and $3.04/MMBtu in 2019.

New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures and options contract values for October 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 5, 2018, suggest a range of $2.37/MMBtu to $3.59/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for October Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95 per cent confidence level.

The US EIA predicts total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32 per cent in 2017 to 34 per cent in 2018 and to 35 per cent in 2019.  As well, coal’s forecast share of electricity generation falls from 30 per cent in 2017 to 28 per cent in 2018 and to 27 per cent in 2019.

Nuclear’s portion of electricity generation was 20 per cent last year and is expected to drop slightly this year and next.

Non-hydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10 per cent of electricity generation in 2017 and are expected to provide more than 10 per cent in 2018 and nearly 11 per cent in 2019.

The generation share of hydropower was 7 per cent in 2017 and is forecast to be slightly less than that share in 2018 and in 2019.

After declining by 0.9 per cent in 2017, EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase by 1.8 per cent in 2018 and decrease by 0.5 per cent in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

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