Energi Media journalism in video, audio, and essays
YouTube Channel: Video energy news
Substack Essays: Thoughtful Energy Journalism
Energi Talks Audio Podcast
Website: Energy news
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is trying to balance the province’s economic interests, her political relationship with Donald Trump’s movement and growing pressure to stand with the rest of Canada as the trade war with the United States escalates, says political scientist Duane Bratt.
Smith responded to Friday’s collapse of Canada-U.S. trade talks much as she has throughout the dispute: tariffs are bad, retaliation is bad and the two countries should return to negotiations. But Bratt, a professor at Mount Royal University, says the more revealing part of Smith’s position is what she leaves unsaid.
“She never, ever criticizes Donald Trump,” Bratt told Energi Media. “We would not be in this position without Donald Trump. This is his trade war.”
Bratt says Smith’s position reflects both ideology and economics. Alberta exports more to the United States than any other province, but the province has been comparatively insulated from Trump’s tariffs because its dominant export is crude oil — a commodity U.S. refiners still need.
Smith has said only about $1.5 billion of Alberta’s roughly $188 billion in U.S. trade is affected by the latest round. That stands in sharp contrast to Ontario, where autos and steel have been directly targeted.
“Where you stand depends upon where you sit,” Bratt said. If oil were targeted while autos were exempt, he added, the positions of Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford would likely look very different.
The dispute also exposes a political contradiction for Alberta separatists. Bratt says the movement’s hard core overlaps with pro-Trump and anti-establishment politics that grew out of the pandemic-era protest movement. But softer separatist supporters — Albertans using separation primarily to send Ottawa a message — may be moving in the opposite direction as Washington increases pressure on Canada.
The trade confrontation, Bratt argues, demonstrates that Ottawa has more tools to defend Alberta’s interests against the United States than an independent Alberta would possess on its own.
Bratt also backed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to walk away from the latest negotiations. He cited Carney’s warning that American commitments are increasingly unreliable and said accepting permanently high U.S. tariffs in return for broad Canadian concessions would be politically impossible to sell at home.
The stakes extend beyond the current tariff list. Bratt said the Trump administration’s industrial strategy is aimed at pulling large-scale manufacturing into the United States. Tariffs of 15 to 25 per cent might not immediately destroy Canadian auto manufacturing, he said, but they could redirect the next plant expansion or new investment south of the border and gradually erode the sector.
Alberta’s politics could become more volatile after Labour Day. Bratt said a University of Calgary School of Public Policy study commissioned by the Alberta government on the economic consequences of separation is nearly complete. A Calgary byelection is also expected before the October referendum.
For Smith, the trade war is therefore becoming more than a dispute over tariffs. It is a test of whether she can continue accommodating a U.S. president admired by part of her political base while a growing number of Canadians — including Albertans — see Washington as the threat.
Be the first to comment