Climate change contributes to surge in global energy demand: IEA

Global energy demand surged in 2024, driven in part by extreme heat that pushed electricity use to new heights. And while clean energy sources made record gains, they weren’t enough to offset rising fossil fuel consumption, finds a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Electricity demand rose nearly twice as fast in 2024 as the average over the past decade, as heatwaves drove up air conditioning use, industries ramped up production, and the world’s fleet of electric vehicles, data centres, and artificial intelligence systems grew, finds [pdf] the IEA’s annual Global Energy Review. Nearly all of the additional electricity was supplied by low-emissions sources, with solar and wind seeing record expansion, along with an 8 per cent rise in nuclear power generation.

Extreme Heat Drove Up Emissions

Still, overall energy demand climbed by 2.2 per cent, leading to a continued reliance on fossil fuels. Gas demand increased substantially. Growth in coal consumption slowed compared to 2023, with a 1 per cent rise due to electricity needed for cooling amid high temperatures, especially in China and India.

If global temperatures had remained at 2023 levels, roughly half of the increase in energy-related emissions could have been avoided last year, the IEA says. Temperature shifts alone accounted for about 20 per cent of the rise in electricity and gas use, and they were the sole driver behind higher coal demand.

Oil Slows, Surplus Expected

Oil demand increased at a much slower pace than in previous years, falling below 30 per cent of global energy consumption for the first time as more EVs hit the roads. Instead, the bulk of oil demand growth came from petrochemical feedstocks—the raw materials used to produce plastics and some chemicals—which increased more than 12 per cent over five years. During recent negotiations for an international treaty to curb plastic production, oil-producing countries pushed to protect these feedstocks, reflecting a broader strategy to sustain their business as transportation electrifies.

An earlier analysis by the IEA indicates oil supply will outstrip demand this year as the United States ramps up production.

Record Renewables Expansion

Clean energy made significant strides in 2024, the IEA finds. Renewables accounted for 38 per cent of new energy supply, with a record-breaking 700 gigawatts of capacity added. Solar dominated, making up nearly 80 per cent of these additions.

“In the European Union, the share of generation provided by solar photovoltaics and wind surpassed the combined share of coal and gas for the first time,” writes the IEA. In the U.S., with funding under the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act rolling out, solar and wind overtook the share of coal.

China’s Outsized Influence

In China, solar PV and wind reached nearly 20 per cent of total generation, making up two-thirds of the global expansion. The country also played a leading role in fossil fuel trends, showing the largest absolute growth in gas demand, at over 7 per cent.

While a 1.8 per cent decline from China’s transportation sector was key to holding back oil demand growth, the country still showed an appetite for coal to meet spiking electricity demand during heatwaves. China alone was responsible for over half of the world’s electricity demand growth.

“China deserves credit for promoting clean energy AND criticism for promoting energy-intensive industry and coal. Need to hold two thoughts at the same time,” veteran analyst Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, wrote on LinkedIn.

“Every time I post a story about positive developments in China, people will respond with a graph showing the country’s emissions rise in the past decades as if that’s a gotcha; when I post negative stuff I get responses about how many solar panels China put up,” he added. “I always try to emphasize that China’s emissions stabilization and budding turnaround is so important because of the country’s huge emissions and rapid emission growth until 2023, not because that makes the country somehow a saint among nations.”

Emissions Slowed By Clean Energy Gains

Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise in 2024, but at a slower rate than the year before. The IEA says expanding clean energy capacity helped hold back emissions growth and avoided an estimated 2.6 billion tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions per year.

Globally, emissions remained decoupled from GDP, in line with a longer-term trend.

Most of the year’s emissions growth was from emerging and developing economies. Once again, China proved exceptional, with per-capita emissions now nearly twice the global average, even as its overall emissions growth slowed.

Clean energy deployment in advanced economies lowered emissions from coal and oil by 5.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, causing overall climate pollution in those countries to drop by 1.1 per cent.