This article was published by The Energy Mix on March 27, 2025.
By Chris Bonasia
Electric vehicles are set to help Europe avoid 20 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, a new report finds, though changes to climate commitments for carmakers could undermine progress.
“Thanks to the switch to EVs, we are starting to see a structural decline in transport emissions,” said William Todts, executive director at Transport & Environment (T&E), which recently released its 2025 State of European Transport report.
“Europe is slowly releasing itself from its dependence on oil, but we are still spending hundreds of billions on imports from overseas powers,” he added. “Now is not the time to roll back green measures. For the continent’s prosperity and security, now is the time to double down.”
T&E analysis shows that transport is the only sector in the EU that still has higher emissions than in 1990. Though EVs have cut emissions from road transport, the aviation and shipping sectors have kept overall emissions high, even though planes and ships account for only a quarter of the sector’s carbon pollution. Airlines emitted 10 per cent more carbon dioxide last year than in 2023.
Still, the EU Green Deal and other legislation have had some impact, notably by increasing the use of clean transport technologies like zero-emissions vehicles. This shift played a key role in reducing transport emissions, which dropped from 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2019 to 1.05 billion tonnes in 2024. T&E estimates that by including shipping in the EU’s carbon trading market, the two sectors combined will have raised an estimated €5 billion (C$7.6 billion) in revenues in 2024 that could increase to €30 billion (C$46 billion) a year by 2030.
“These funds can be used to bridge the price gap between green e-fuels and traditional fossil fuels,” says T&E.
By the end of this year, Europe’s battery-electric car fleet is projected to reach up to nine million vehicles that will collectively help avoid 20 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. T&E says European sales of fossil fuel cars peaked in 2018, suggesting that “there are signs that transport’s emissions and oil consumption are in structural decline.”
But the European Commission recently proposed changes to carbon dioxide targets for carmakers that extend the timeline for cutting emissions until the end of 2027. The original target had required that EVs make up one-fifth of vehicle sales by the end of 2025, toward the ultimate goal of reaching net-zero emissions in 2035. T&E says stretching the timeline for the target will result in fewer EVs on the road in the coming year. With 880,000 fewer electric cars sold between 2025-2027 compared to the current target, the continent can expect 50 million tonnes of additional emissions.
The changes still await approval from EU governments and the European Parliament.
Carmakers like Volkswagen called the new timeline a “pragmatic approach” that gives companies the flexibility to boost demand by making more affordable models.
But while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the change as giving carmakers “breathing space,” T&E framed it as a “concession to the car industry.”
“The key to competitiveness is to be able to produce electric vehicles at a price mass consumers want,” said Todts. “That’s what the Chinese have done. Postponing this in Europe does not make you more competitive.”
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