This article was published by the US Energy Information Administration on Jan. 9, 2024.
By Tim Hess, Kristen Tsai
We expect solar electric generation will be the leading source of growth in the U.S. electric power sector. In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which contains new forecast data through December 2025, we forecast new capacity will boost the solar share of total generation to 5.6 per cent in 2024 and 7.0 per cent in 2025, up from 4.0 per cent in 2023.
Note: Values for 2023 reflect historical data through October and estimates for November and December.
The STEO includes two Between the Lines articles that discuss how our forecast for Brent crude oil prices performed in 2023 and a closer look at our Brent price forecast for 2024 and 2025. We expect U.S. crude oil and natural gas production growth to slow, but both continue to reach new records.
Other key takeaways from our January 2024 STEO include the following.
We believe that slower growth will still establish new annual records in U.S. crude oil and natural gas production
OPEC+ production will probably stay below targets
We forecast OPEC+’s crude oil production will average 36.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 and 37.2 million b/d in 2025, both less than its pre-pandemic five-year (2015–19) average of 40.2 million b/d. These values do not include Angola, which left OPEC in January 2024.
U.S. gasoline and diesel prices are likely to fall slightly
We expect gasoline and diesel prices to fall slightly in 2024 and 2025 primarily because of reduced refinery margins as indicated by lower crack spreads.
We expect U.S. coal production and consumption to fall to volumes not seen since the early 1960s
Coal consumption falls because demand declines in the electric power sector, and coal production then declines in response.