Trump creates chaos which he then exploits by bullying and using what he perceives as leverage to lean on Canada. Carney gets it, Poilievre does not
Trump’s negotiating strategy has always been misunderstood. Critics portray him as impulsive, erratic, or simply reckless. Supporters celebrate him as a master dealmaker willing to use any tactic to advance American interests. Both explanations miss something important. Trump doesn’t destroy institutions like CUSMA to achieve his objectives because preserving them in a permanent state of uncertainty serves him better.
Chaos is not a byproduct of his strategy. It is the strategy.
That distinction matters because it explains why Trump’s latest announcement that he would not renew CUSMA is less dramatic than the headlines suggest. The trade agreement remains in force. Trade between Canada, the United States, and Mexico continues. What changes is the political environment surrounding it.
Instead of the certainty businesses and investors crave, Trump creates a climate in which every tariff threat, every review, every social media post becomes another opportunity to pressure trading partners into concessions. The agreement becomes a stage on which leverage is exercised rather than a set of rules that constrains it.
My conversations this week with American law professor Kristen van de Biezenbos and trade economist Peter Morrow both point toward the same conclusion.
Trump has not walked away from CUSMA because walking away would eliminate one of his most effective bargaining tools. As Morrow observes, if Trump truly believed the United States needed nothing from Canada or Mexico, he could simply withdraw. He has chosen not to. That suggests he sees continuing value in the agreement. Not as a stable framework for trade, but as a source of continuing leverage over America’s two largest trading partners.
This is where Canadian politics becomes interesting.
Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to understand the nature of the challenge. His response has not been panic or retaliation. Instead, he has pursued trade diversification, strengthened relationships with allies, and largely resisted demands for dramatic countermeasures. Whether every decision has been correct is debatable, but his broader approach recognizes that Trump’s objective is often to provoke an overreaction.
The surest way to strengthen Trump’s hand is to play the game exactly as he wants it played.
Pierre Poilievre sees the problem differently.
His political instincts favour confrontation, sharp rhetoric, and matching aggression with aggression. That approach may work in domestic politics, though his collapse in public opinion polls since Carney became prime minister 15 months ago suggests that Canadians are no longer impressed.
Carney’s approach to Trump is polite resistance: keep the channels open, avoid panic, and refuse to reward chaos with unnecessary concessions. Poilievre favours something closer to capitulation. Whether he understands it or not, that plays directly into Trump’s hand. It is exactly what the US president wants. Once concessions begin, Trump’s record suggests he will keep demanding more until Canada finally stops giving them.
This is the federal Conservatives’ greatest failure: they mistake surrender for strategy.
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